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General Electric spreading its wings in Czech Republic

While some companies may be consolidating, others are reconfiguring and expanding. General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) has acquired a small airplane engine company in the Czech Republic. Selling it's appliance business and adding more to it's portfolio of aircraft and engine capability should be a good move. The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported today that GE hopes to improve its competitive position against Pratt & Whitney.

A response from a Pratt & Whitney spokesman played down the increased competition and said that although the company takes this GE move seriously it has a 45-year history producing small engines and holds a solid position in the market place. This type of comment is to be expected and has some validity, but that does not make it good news for P&W.

P&W is a division of another major giant industrial conglomerate United Technologies (NYSE: UTX). Both GE and UTX stocks were up in early morning trading today.

UPDATE: GE closed at $26.91 up $0.40 (1.51%). UTX closed at $61.05 up $1.35 ( 2.26%).

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of GE.

Rite Aid (RAD) is wrong, wrong, wrong!

Last year, actually 18 months ago now, James Cramer had enough faith in the Rite Aid Corp (NYSE: RAD) to include it in his 2007 picks. At that time the stock was trading for $5.49 per share. It closed yesterday at $1.56 and is trading further down today.

When I say RAD is wrong, wrong, wrong, I mean it literally. There is a store located a few blocks from my office that I shop at perhaps once a month. Yesterday I bought a few things and was amazed at how bad their accounting was.

My primary mission was to acquire some toothpaste, but there are always a few tempting sale items. When I was checking out I discovered that the sports drink for sale at "5 for $5 dollars" was a mistake and the sign in the store display should have been taken down because the offer had expired. Another item I purchased was marked down from $3.99 to $1.99, great deal! . . . but they told me that the sale price was placed on the wrong shelf for that product and what I wanted was not on sale.

Continue reading Rite Aid (RAD) is wrong, wrong, wrong!

Serious Money: Tracking five stable stocks

After seeing the interest in yesterday's Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times, I decided to track the stocks on a quarterly basis to see how they hold up over time (otherwise, what would be the purpose of discussing them in the first place?).

I said that all five have shrewd, conservative management teams and have been in the right place, at the right time -- and prepared. The standard for comparison will be the Standard & Poors 500 Index which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. Although my original story was published yesterday, I will be using the second quarter end point for my five stocks as well.

1) Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) closed at $64.34 and pays a 2.89% dividend yield.

2) Teva Pharmaceuticals ADR (NASDAQ: TEVA) closed at $45.80 and pays a 1% dividend yield.

3) Chubb Corp (NYSE: CB) closed at $49.01 and pays a 2.64% dividend yield.

Continue reading Serious Money: Tracking five stable stocks

Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times

Six months of 2008 are now behind us and the stock market has not been a friendly place to most investors. Stability that was once found in household names that were industry giants is gone, and they have now been brought to their knees.

Many of them were the stocks we might have looked to in the past for stability, so you can be sure I put forward my five candidates with a little trepidation, but forward I go anyway. First a little review is in order.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) dropped from around $53 per share last year to around $30 in January and we can buy it today for around $17. Even at that price Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has downgraded it to a sell and thinks there is more bad news to come. Citigroup was the largest bank in the world. Not any more.

General Motors (NYSE: GM) was the largest car maker in the world. That was before the stock tumbled from $43 to its current $11 range. A crushing blow to long time investors hoping that someone in the company could stop the ship from sinking.

Continue reading Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times

Obama & McCain may go non-defensible


It was only last week that Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) caused havoc in the stock market (or at least lead the charge) downgrading Citigroup Inc.(NYSE: C), and General Motors (NYSE: GM) among others, but now they have started to express concern that some of the defense sector stocks may be vulnerable to the next president's ax.

Bloomberg is reporting that last month Goldman Sachs was issuing warnings to their clients about the fact that Barack Obama and John McCain both may seek to reduce or end big ticket defense purchases such as Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) F-22 fighter and the Army's $159 billion Future Combat Systems, a modernization plan jointly managed by Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) and SAIC Inc.

It was only a few weeks ago I posted Chasing Value: General Dynamics & Raytheon: The defense does not rest and things continued to look bright until a few days later, perhaps after the GS behind the scenes warning started to have an impact on the market that the sector took a mysterious swoon -- now I know why.

If Goldman Sachs, one of the few investment houses with any credibility left, makes a move everyone else seems to want to get out of the way.

I have viewed the defense sector favorably this year and will not abandon ship because GS is getting cold feet. They have been rather negative on everything lately and I do not think the (stock) world is coming to an end.

The Bloomberg article notes that while some programs will be cut others will be added. It is all a guessing game as either presidential candidate will want to review the entirety of defense expenditures in a new administration.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of GD.

Yahoo board is feeling the Icahn heat

It should be no surprise to anyone that despite all the ranting and raving to the contrary Mr. Carl Icahn, billionaire investor, shareholder white knight and corporate raider is heating up things in the Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) boardroom.

It has been reported that he purchased a sizable chunk of the company in the neighborhood of $25 per share, hoping to make another fortune pushing Yahoo back to the negotiating table with Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT).

This morning AP reported that Jerry Yang, CEO and company are lobbying major shareholders to rally support for their position that Yahoo! should get a higher offer or stand alone as an independent company. It seems to me that they are standing on lose ground given that many large and small shareholders alike have already spoken, and they would have taken the deal.

The market has spoken as well, with Yahoo stock losing over a third of it's value recently and nearing $20 per share this morning Icahn is losing 20% of his investment as things look today. This is turning into the battle of the billionaires.

One small problem the billionaire boys in Redmond are not that hot on the deal any more because, as Gates Leaves Microsoft, he Calls Yahoo Deal Unlikely.

I think this whole saga might make a cute Neil Simon play if they would let him into the meetings to take some notes.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I do not own shares in the stocks mentioned in this story.

Sunday Funnies: Analyst -- VLO up 61.5% in next 12 months

A few days ago I posted Chasing Value: Valero -- when is a downgrade an upgrade? and since then I have become even more disturbed with our government and the stock analysts, as well as the companies they represent. Eitan Bernstein, an analyst with Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co downgraded his expectations for the major oil refiners Wednesday and lowered his price target for Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) from $77 to $65.

How can this be? The stock was trading around $40 per share and closed Friday at $39.96. As a shareholder who has watched this stock go down, any signs of optimism have to be welcome I suppose, but what in the world is this guy saying. He is saying he has concerns about the sector, but believes VLO will be 61.5% higher this time next year any way!

This makes no sense. He can't be too concerned, can he? If you believed him you would buy all the VLO shares you could get hold of -- and so would he! Maybe he did? Or maybe he is trying to pump up the stock to help a big client? Or maybe he is clueless and does not know what he is talking about? What might his e-mails reveal?

Anyone can predict anything, and they have a right to be an idiot, but what responsibility does he have to eat his own cooking? VLO started the year near a high that is between Bernstein's old and new projections, and I for one have hopes of it rebounding, but I do not have the level of certainty to broadcast such an exact figure. What is the purpose?

The change in his projections of 15.5% is indicative of the silliness of this analysis. We have seen this before and will see it again ... so buyer beware.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of VLO.


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Big company, small town: Kellogg Co., Battle Creek, Michigan

This post is part of our Big Company, Small Town series, featuring large companies and the small towns in which they are headquartered.

There are probably very few people growing up in North America that have not had Kellogg's (NYSE: K) cereal at some time. I know people that have breakfast cereal for lunch or diner as well. It is the number one U.S. breakfast cereal maker, ahead of General Mills (NYSE: GIS). Among its well-known brands are Frosted Flakes and Rice Krispies.

The company, founded by Keith (W.K.) Kellogg and brother, Dr. John Harvey Kellogg, began with only 44 employees in 1906. Today it employs more than 30,000 people, manufactures in 18 countries, and sells products in more than 180 countries.

Kellogg is a big company in a small town but it is not alone. Battle Creek, Michigan, known as the "Cereal City," is the world headquarters of Kellogg Company and also the home of Post Cereals, which was part of General Foods Corporation and is now part of Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT). When Kellogg started, there were 42 other cereal companies in Battle Creek.

Continue reading Big company, small town: Kellogg Co., Battle Creek, Michigan

Chasing Value: Valero -- when is a downgrade an upgrade?

What can I say, one of my best stocks picks of 2007 has turned into one of my worst of 2008. Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) the largest independent oil refiner in the United States has experienced shrinking profit margins as oil prices have continued to climb throughout the year.

It was reported in the Associated Press that a Wall Street analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co downgraded his expectations for the major oil refiners Wednesday. In regards to VLO, analyst Eitan Bernstein lowered his price target from $77 to $65.

Analysts are notoriously optimistic and I myself would not hazard a guess picking a number out of thin air given the number of variables to consider, but I would go as far as to say this downgrade makes me laugh.

The stock closed yesterday at $41.25 and is trading down further today around $40. But this is considerably lower then anyones price targets for the stock so perhaps this is a case where the downgrade is actually an upgrade.

My colleague Steven Halpern posted similar sentiments last week Valero (VLO): Ready for a refinery rebound?

This is a company with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.43 and a price-to-book of 1.42 that accompany a P/E of 7 and a yield of 1.41%. I may have been caught in the downdraft of a cyclical stock recommending it last December, but I sure do feel more comfortable recommending to readers that they examine VLO today.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. DISCLOSURE: I currently own shares of VLO.

Big company, small town: Dow Chemical, Midland, Michigan

This post is part of our Big Company, Small Town series, featuring large companies and the small towns in which they are headquartered.

The Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) is capitalized at about $40 billion dollars and produces a multitude of household and industrial products that probably touch most Americans lives in some way. It is the largest chemical company in the U.S. and number two worldwide (ahead of ExxonMobil and behind BASF), and it is also a leader in performance plastics.

On May 18, 1897, Dow Chemical incorporated, based on Herbert H. Dow's plan to manufacture and sell bleach on a commercial scale. A year later they were in full-scale commercial production. The Dow-in-diamond mark was created to help resolve product shipping problems. In 1900, the Midland Chemical Company merged into Dow Chemical.

The company was always evolving under the guidance of Mr. Dow, who in 1913 announced the company would exit the bleach business to refocus to the value of chlorine as a raw material, prompting Dow stock to rise dramatically.

Continue reading Big company, small town: Dow Chemical, Midland, Michigan

Serious Money: General Motors drops after Goldman ratings cut

It was only yesterday that I posted Serious Money: GM, GE, Gee Wiz!, concerned that Barron's was betting on the wrong horse (which happens all too often -- see Sunday Funnies: Big Brown a sure thing at Belmont) as it pumped up General Motors (NYSE: GM) in a cover story two weeks ago.

GM stock closed yesterday at $12.81 but today traded down to a new 52-week low of $11.21; as of 1:15, it is at $11.51, down nearly 10%.

GM is trading at a 30 year low. "Today's drop came after a Goldman Sachs analyst cut his rating for GM to "Sell" from "Neutral" and his price target to $11 from $16, saying things could still get worse for the North American automotive industry as a whole."

I wonder if he read my post yesterday . . . probably not. I am not a big fan of analysts as a group but this did not take a crystal ball. Barron's should do a follow-up story explaining how their crystal ball got so fogged up.

Continue reading Serious Money: General Motors drops after Goldman ratings cut

Start drilling offshore: ATW, DO, ESV, HERO, NE, PDE, RDC, RIG

Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain It's time to start drilling for oil and natural gas offshore on the east and west coasts. We are wasting our time and our money, and risking our future by not doing so. The energy needs of the United States have made oil our number one import and the biggest factor in our imbalance of trade.

It is not just that oil holds us hostage to the rest of the world. This imbalance of trade means we cannot support ourselves and must borrow from others to get by, and I, for one, have a very hard time with that notion. I prefer independence -- remember that? I think it was an important concept in our founding, way back when.

The imbalance in trade is a mortgage against the future of our children and it is getting worse year after year. The money often goes to foreign governments whose interests are not aligned with ours and they hold us politically and economically captive. Nothing is more shameful than President Bush pleading with Saudi Monarchs to pump more oil.

Continue reading Start drilling offshore: ATW, DO, ESV, HERO, NE, PDE, RDC, RIG

Serious Money: GM, GE, Gee Wiz!

A recent Barron's had a cover story featuring General Motors (NYSE: GM) which I have been pondering for a while. Somehow the story did not get me all that excited despite the boldness of the headline reading "BUY GM."

More attuned to the words that followed -- "GM is a risky bet" -- I wondered why they would not feature something with possibly equal potential and far less risk. If you read the journal cover to cover, you might have taken note of the fact that there were two articles highlighting General Electric (NYSE: GE).

In the first, Michael Santoli extols the virtues of owning GE compared to a 10 year Treasury note which offers security but no upside potential. He mentions the high yield, low P/E, strong businesses and the fact that current CEO Jeffrey Immelt bought shares in the open market for $3.5 million.

Continue reading Serious Money: GM, GE, Gee Wiz!

Sunday Funnies: Barron's forgets fees and taxes

Regular readers know that I enjoy Barron's Weekly (subscription required) one of the best business journals around and that it has provoked some of my better investment ideas. However, even Barron's can fall prey to bad or incomplete reporting, (as if there were a difference), as they benefit from market activity and can stretch an idea too far, becoming all too common.

Barron's incomplete and common story was in the June 9, 2008 issue titled "Timing is Everything". What I find common, and thus objectionable, is the fact that they choose to tout Appel Asset Management's like so many brokerage houses do numerous funds (for the fees), ignoring basic tidbits like said fees, and taxes. The Appels seem to do an admirable job for their investors but they do not beat the indices, so who cares?

Their simple strategy is to invest in the two broadly based hot ETF's, counting on momentum lasting more than one quarter, and switch them out each quarter. This they claim takes only an hour of work every three months, how lovely. In the story they state "From 1979 through 2007, Marvin Appel would have (emphasis mine) returned 16% a year, before fees, better than the 15% a year performance of the Russell 2000 Value Index". They also leave out how long the approach has actually been in place.

Continue reading Sunday Funnies: Barron's forgets fees and taxes

Kobe makes 'Final Four' with BUD, ETFC, GM & MCD - NBA still in business

Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher with refereeYesterday could have been the end of the NBA season, but the Los Angeles Lakers forced a game six in Boston -- not so much by winning; more by having a "refuse to lose" finish that they could not muster before. I am quite sure David Stern is fine with that outcome. ESPN, and ABC television owned by Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) must be ecstatic. The NBA officials will earn another paycheck, and the sponsors? They are praying for a game seven for sure!

Yesterday, prior to the game, I posted Sunday Funnies: Lakers/Celtics -- NBA business success, and dedicated much of the word flow to all the clamoring about NBA officiating and reasons why the game had issues. Today is all the about the cash.

While the Super Bowl is the hugest of events, an NBA Finals is a saga with twists and turns, and this one so far has had many. The Lakers face insurmountable odds of winning two games in Boston so they have been as much as counted out already.

Laker star and NBA Most Valuable Player Kobe Bryant has posed the most interesting perspective on the challenge his team faces that I can ever remember. He said, prior to the game, that since he did not go to college he viewed his situation like making the Elite Eight referring to Division I college basketball March Madness. He said, you just have to feel grateful you are there and know that you have to win three games to win the tournament.

Continue reading Kobe makes 'Final Four' with BUD, ETFC, GM & MCD - NBA still in business

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Last updated: July 05, 2008: 12:16 PM

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