sbux

The New York Times reports that the European Central Bank raised its equivalent of the Fed Funds rate to 4.25%. Meanwhile, Bernanke's economic wrecking crew has kept the U.S. rate at 2%. Investors will sell dollars and buy Euros. That will cause the dollar to lose even more of the 72% it's lost since January 2001. But none of this is really happening because AFP reports that President George Bush has declared that "we're strong dollar people."

The key to U.S. policy is repeated denials of the obvious -- which is that U.S. policy is consistently intended to weaken the dollar. The reason is that a weak dollar makes the goods of big U.S. corporate exporters relatively cheap when they sell overseas. And of course, since oil is traded in dollars, a weak one causes the price of oil to spike. It now resides at a comfortable $146 a barrel, up 508% since January 2001.

But Reuters reports that Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson -- who last year brought us "subprime is contained" -- now says that the weak dollar is not to blame for high oil prices. With apologies to the old E.F. Hutton advertisements -- which said "When E.F. Hutton talks, people listen" -- when Hank Paulson talks, people snicker.

If you are fortunate enough to have the money to invest in stocks, you may have made some money doing so. But you may also have made your share of money-losing investment mistakes. I know I have made plenty of such mistakes. Based on my experience, here are three that I would guess are pretty common:

• Not reading the prospectus. Too many investors buy stocks on tips from a broker or a TV stock promoter. They do not read the financial statements of a company. If they did, they would know about financial challenges, legal problems, industry uncertainties and other problems which could hammer their investments. But people don't read these financial statements, in many cases because they lack the financial education to make sense of the information.
• Not setting stop losses. People fall in love with a stock once they've invested. If the stock goes down, they hold on because they don't want to admit that they were wrong. Investors should set stop losses – if the stock falls 2% to 5% from the original price, they should sell. Most investors do not have the discipline to do this. But if they did, they would limit their portfolio risk tremendously. Would they also miss out on some opportunities? Probably, but more often than not, they'd save themselves losses.

In the first half of 2008, the S&P 500 fell 12%. June's stock market was the worst since 1930. So are stocks now a screaming buy or are they poised to plunge further? Nobody knows. But my guess is that stocks will move based on how well they perform compared with expectations. And the risk of negative surprises in most industries exceeds the chance of positive ones. So stocks will probably keep falling.

Here's a quick review of six negatives:

• Oil prices. With oil at $142, up 492% since January 2001, consumers are paying about $4.10 a gallon for gas and companies that use oil are getting squeezed while trying to raise prices. An attack on Iran, a big oil supplier, looms on the horizon. This and other geopolitical uncertainties could put further pressure on oil.
• Housing. Three million people are expected to face foreclosure on their homes. And prices have dropped 15%. Since people were using home equity to finance their purchasing, their negative equity is sucking the wind out of the economy.

Ever since Circuit City Stores (NYSE: CC) CEO Philip J. Schoonover sliced 3,400 sales people in March 2007 to save money, I have questioned the savvy of its management. That's because many of those fired sales people took their customers over to Best Buy (NYSE: BBY). As its stock lost 86% of its value, I was surprised that anyone would make a bid for it.

Yet Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI), the struggling video store chain, decided to buy. I don't know what got into Blockbuster's head to make it think that combining two struggling companies would make an agile competitor. The Richmond Times reports that it wanted to create a one-stop shop for movies, games, and electronic equipment. But that dream died when Blockbuster pulled its $1.3 billion offer after reviewing Circuit City's books.

Carl Icahn has said he would buy Circuit City. But it's losing money -- $164.8 million, or $1 a share, in its fiscal first quarter. This was $100 million more than its Q1 2007 loss. And Blockbuster's conclusion after a closer look at its financial statements does not bode well for Circuit City's future. Circuit City stock is down 7.8% in pre-market. Let's see whether any new bidders emerge.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

MSNBC reports that Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) is closing 600 stores. The closings could eliminate as many as 12,000 jobs -- this is 7 percent of Starbucks' global workforce.

The move isn't that surprising given Starbucks' recent weaker-than-hoped sales. But, still, it is a big change from its famous strategy of opening stores lots of stores, many in close proximity to each other. "Starbucks, known for sometimes going so far as to open stores across the street from one another, has recently acknowledged that it may have lost some of its luster during a long period of rapid store openings and expansion into everything from breakfast sandwiches to movie promotions," writes senior writer Allison Linn.

Starbucks will take an after tax write-down of between $328 million and $348 million related to the store closings. But because of tax benefits, it expects to see total cash outflow of about $100 million. Starbucks stock is up 6.5% in after hours trading.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Starbucks securities.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the stock market finished the second quarter just above Bear market territory. Does that mean everything's great or that things are going to get worse from here? I think the worst is yet to come and that investors should hold onto their stocks unless they and/or the companies they've bought are going bankrupt. And they might look to buy stocks in the coal and fertilizer industries.

The Journal reports that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) began its march downward, ending the quarter (including Monday's slim 3.50-point gain) with an overall loss of 912.88 points, or 7.4%, at 11350.01 -- and perilously slightly less than the 20% decline from a recent high that is considered the start of a bear market. It was the third straight quarterly decline and the worst second quarter since 2002.

I think the 20% decline that designates a Bear market is pretty arbitrary. People know that the market has been a disaster. And if earnings matter, it's likely to get worse. The Journal notes that analysts expect earnings at S&P 500 companies to be down 11% for the second period, led by a 60% plunge in financial-sector earnings. Estimates fell sharply as the quarter progressed. On April 1, analysts were expecting a 2% drop in S&P earnings and a 31% decline in the financial sector.

If an enemy sworn to the destruction of the global economy was given free reign, it would follow the strategies of its current leaders.

One key to destroying an economy is to break its pricing mechanism. What does an effectively functioning pricing system do? It creates a market of buyers and sellers who can meet, agree on a price, conduct the transaction, and create an information trail that permits future market participants to judge what might be a fair price for their transactions.

Another key to destroying an economy is to put too low a price on risky behavior. Why is it important to price risk accurately? Because if decision-makers do not assess the risk at the time of their decision, the economy will end up paying for the under-priced risk long after those decision-makers have left office.

So how have current leaders broken the pricing mechanism and under-priced risk? Here are three ways:

The S&P 500 is down 12% this year. But some stocks are doing spectacularly well.

My newsletter, which has been picking three stocks a month for the last five and a half years, has found several of them. This year, it's up 29% so far. That increase is the rise in the average stock mentioned in the newsletter since its initial mention through the end of June. And it uses a 2% stop loss rule which automatically sells any stock that has declined by 2% and charges that decline against the returns.

Here are the three biggest winners:

• Walter Industry (NYSE: WLT) +156%
• Southwestern Energy (NYSE: SWN) +44%
• Chart Industries (NYSE: GTLS) +43%

With oil prices on the rise, these three are likely to benefit. But at some point, their valuations will exceed their earnings growth. So keep a close eye on them.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

Things are not working out so well for those at the Fed who deny that inflation exists. After all, its job is to keep the currency strong by putting out brush fires of inflationary expectations before they can become a firestorm of price spike fears. And if current consumers' expectations of inflation are any measure, the Fed is not doing its job.

That's according to the Associated Press, which reports that 90% of those it polled expect ballooning costs to squeeze them financially over the next half-year. Consumers have less money than they used to -- the median income is down since 2000 from $61,000 to $60,500. And prices have risen -- food has tripled in many cases and gasoline prices are up to around $4.20 a gallon. But the Fed does not see this -- it measures inflation excluding food and fuel -- and has kept rates at 2%.

And with housing in the tank and lenders in trouble, they can't borrow their way to balancing their budgets. Since the Fed is not controlling inflation, people are coping by cutting back. They are driving less, easing off the air conditioning and heating at home and cutting corners elsewhere. Half are curtailing vacation plans; nearly as many are considering buying cars that burn less gas.

The New York Times reports that Massachusetts secretary William Galvin has subpoenaed some revealing e-mails from UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) that illustrate its decision to stick retail investors with its worthless ARS inventory.

I've been following the $330 billion ARS market since February when the weekly auction market for resetting their yields seized up. Since then 4,852 comments have been posted from individual investors whose money is frozen in ARS limbo.

The e-mails reveal that UBS's corporate customers did not want to buy the ARS on UBS's books. So UBS tried to unload the worthless securities onto its individual customers. Absent dumping the ARS, UBS would need to take the hit itself. Rather than do that, UBS decided to let those foolish enough to fall for the ARS sales pitch to take the losses. The Times illustrates this decision clearly in an e-mail from Joe Gallichio, a managing director in the municipal finance department at UBS, on February 21, after the ARS market had frozen.

What will it take to break the downward cycle for the U.S. stock market and its economy? Get back to our roots as a country that lives within its means.

The source of the problem is that we have gotten away from the idea of paying only for things we can afford. To close that affordability gap that results from lower income and higher prices, we have borrowed money -- $9.3 trillion in federal debt, a $410 billion federal budget deficit, and $2.5 trillion in consumer borrowing -- which has caused other countries to view the dollar as a distress currency. It's lost 72% of its value since January 2001 -- when it traded at 92 cents to the euro.

Having spent the last two weeks in Europe, that weak currency hurts -- everything seems to be about 50% more expensive there than it is here. Gasoline there is far more expensive than it is in the U.S. -- roughly $9.60 a gallon compared to $4.25 here. And the reason that our stock market is dropping while oil rises is a result of deliberate government policies designed to weaken the dollar and strengthen oil.

As anticipated, Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) and Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) announced a deal. The Wall Street Journal reports it's worth between $250 million and $450 million in additional cash flow to Yahoo.

The deal will be delayed a few months for regulatory approval. Under its terms, Yahoo will select which search term queries it offers Google paid search results for, the number and placement of Google results and how they are blended with its own results and those of other providers. Yahoo said either party can end the agreement in the event of a change in control. If control of Yahoo changes hands in the next 24 months, Yahoo must pay a termination fee of $250 million.

Poor Carl Icahn. He could have had a $33 a share deal from Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT), now all he has is 33 cents a share from Google. Cover your ears before his moaning and groaning begins. Yahoo shares are up 1% after hours after losing 10% during regular trading.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

Businesswire reports that Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) have officially ended their discussions about any kind of partnership. Yahoo stock is down 11%.

According to Yahoo: "Microsoft is not interested in pursuing an acquisition of all of Yahoo!, even at the price range it had previously suggested. With respect to an acquisition of Yahoo!'s search business alone that Microsoft had proposed, Yahoo!'s Board of Directors rejected it for three reasons:

• Such a transaction would not be consistent with the company's view of the converging search and display marketplaces,
• Would leave the company without an independent search business that it views as critical to its strategic future, and
• Would not be in the best interests of Yahoo! stockholders.

Expect more loud squawking noises from Carl Icahn to follow. Cover your ears!

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.

With oil at $135 a barrel - up 463% since January 2001, Washington wrings its hands and says there's nothing it can do to lower the price. I think that's nonsense. There are two things that Washington can do today to get the price down: raise interest rates and close the swaps loophole.

What is the role of speculators in the price of oil and other commodities and what should be done to get those prices down? Some argue that oil prices are set by supply and demand. But if that were true, oil would drop because global demand is forecast to grow 1.2 million bbl/day -- and demand in the U.S. is down 300,000 barrels a day -- while global supply is expected to rise 2 million bbl/day.

Perhaps sixty percent of trading volume in oil is due to speculators -- these traders bet on a declining dollar and a rising price of oil. Raising interest rates would help lower the value of the dollar which has lost 70% of its value relative to the Euro since January 2001. Our Fed Funds rate fell from 5.25% to 2% since last August whereas in Europe, their rate is 4% and expected to rise. This difference makes Euros a more attractive currency for investors. So if the U.S. raises interest rates, people will start to buy dollars instead.

According to reports, Erin Callan, the charismatic CFO of Lehman Brothers Holdings (NYSE: LEH) is out of a job. So is Lehman's chief operating officer, Joseph Gregory.

As Charlie Gasparino reported for CNBC, "Callan and Gregory are leaving the investment bank, which has been under fire from its weak earnings performance and speculation that it will need to raise billions in capital to stay afloat, has seen its shares under intense pressure." Reuters reports that Herbert McDade will succeed Gregory, and Ian Lowitt will take over for Callan -- will become a senior investment banker at Lehman. I will discuss this at noon on Fox Business.

The market seems to hate the news -- with Lehman shares down 7% in premarket trading. Will the people who replace Callan (Lowitt) and Gregory (McDade) be so much more talented that they can extricate Lehman from its short- and long-term problems? Who knows how deep its writedowns will be in its Level 3 assets or how it will make money in the future, given that its core business of asset-backed securities has dried up.

Maybe these ousters make it a more obvious acquisition target. But they just look like sacrificial lambs on CEO Dick Fuld's altar to me. And they signal very deep problems to investors.

[This post has been recently updated to add more information as it was reported]

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Lehman securities.